FBS · Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference game
Louisville's ratings edge outweighs a tighter record at North Carolina
Louisville#3353%
North Carolina#4447%Wk 11 (Nov 8), 2026-27: Louisville 53%, North Carolina 47% at North Carolina.
Louisville's win probability against North Carolina has swung between 38% and 58% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 53% now.
Louisville's win probability against North Carolina has swung between 44% and 64% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 59% now.
Louisville's win probability against North Carolina has swung between 50% and 69% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 65% now.
A one-game gap in the standings hides a much wider split in how Versus sees these two. Louisville sits at 6-3 and North Carolina at 5-4, but the Cardinals carry an A- overall grade to the Tar Heels' B+, and Louisville's power rank of 28 in FBS comes with a divisional rank of 33, eleven spots clear of North Carolina at 44.
The offense is the separator. Louisville grades out at an A on that side of the ball with a offensive rank of 15, while North Carolina's defense, graded A-, ranks 34th. North Carolina's own offense checks in at 40th, which is where Louisville's advantage shows up most.
Both teams have played close to the vest all season. No one has beaten North Carolina by more than 11 points, and no one has beaten Louisville by more than 3, though the Cardinals are just 1-3 in one-score games, a wrinkle worth watching given Versus projects this one at 30-29 with Louisville favored and a 53 percent win probability.
Louisville leads the series 2-1 in three meetings since 2011, and with both teams in the ACC, the result counts in the conference standings.
Graded within FBS, 138 teams
