D3 · Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic ConferenceConference game
UW-River Falls projected to edge UW-La Crosse 32-24 on the road
UW-River Falls#1068%
UW-La Crosse#6032%Wk 10 (Nov 1), 2026-27: UW-River Falls 68%, UW-La Crosse 32% at UW-La Crosse.
UW-River Falls' win probability against UW-La Crosse has swung between 49% and 73% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 68% now.
UW-River Falls' win probability against UW-La Crosse has swung between 55% and 78% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 73% now.
UW-River Falls' win probability against UW-La Crosse has swung between 61% and 82% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 78% now.
Versus projects UW-River Falls to win at UW-La Crosse 32-24, an eight-point margin that favors the Falcons even away from home. That lines up with where the model has each program sitting in Division III: UW-River Falls checks in at No. 10, UW-La Crosse at No. 60, a 50-spot gap that is among the widest in any WIAC matchup this week.
The grades tell the same story from a different angle. UW-River Falls carries A+ marks across power, offense and defense, backed by a 6-2 record and a strength of schedule rank of 4. UW-La Crosse still grades out well, A across power, offense and defense, but its overall mark sits at B+ and its divisional rank has fallen sharply, down 54 spots this season after an 0-5... no, a 3-5 start. The Eagles have also gone 1-4 in one-score games, a sign the close ones have not broken their way.
History leans the other direction. UW-La Crosse has won 14 of 18 meetings in the series and taken 8 of the last 10, so the Eagles are no strangers to beating a more highly rated UW-River Falls side. This conference game counts in the WIAC standings, and the Falcons will need to prove the model's projection right against an opponent that has not lost by more than 17 points all year.
Graded within D3, 234 teams
