Abilene Christian projected to edge unbeaten Tarleton State by one

Versus has this one about as even as a projection gets, calling for a 29-28 Abilene Christian win that leaves the Wildcats with just a 53 percent win probability to Tarleton State's 47. A one-point margin on paper, but it carries real weight given what sits behind it.

Tarleton State arrives at 9-0 and ranked 4th in FCS, carrying an A+ overall grade built on an A+ offense that ranks 8th. The concern is the other side of the ball, a B+ defense ranked 33rd, and a strength of schedule rank of 87 that raises questions about how battle-tested that unbeaten record really is.

Abilene Christian counters at 5-4 but with a power rank of 8, well ahead of Tarleton State's 16th, anchored by an A+ defense ranked 7th and a far tougher schedule at 10th. The Wildcats are 3-1 in one-score games this season and have posted a winning record in three straight, the kind of profile that travels well into close games.

This is a United Athletic Conference game and it counts in the standings. Abilene Christian leads the all-time series 9-3 and has taken 7 of the last 10 meetings with Tarleton State.