Louisiana-Lafayette projected to beat South Alabama by 11 at home

Versus projects Louisiana-Lafayette to win 35-24 over South Alabama, a margin of 11 points that lines up with a 74 percent home win probability for the Ragin' Cajuns. That projection reflects a Sun Belt game that counts fully in the conference standings, even with both teams sitting in the middle of the FBS pack, Louisiana-Lafayette at No. 76 and South Alabama at No. 89.

Louisiana-Lafayette brings a six-game home winning streak into the game and no opponent has beaten the Ragin' Cajuns by more than 19 points all season, a sign that even their three losses have stayed within reach. Their B- defensive grade and 69th-ranked defense give them an edge on that side of the ball over South Alabama's D grade and 121st-ranked defense.

South Alabama's offense, graded C and ranked 81st, has shown it can carry the Jaguars, highlighted by an upset of a team ranked 23 spots above them earlier this season. But that performance came at home, and South Alabama's scoring tends to drop significantly on the road, which works against them in Lafayette. The projection favors Louisiana-Lafayette's balance over South Alabama's road inconsistency.