Millsaps looks to snap a 10-game skid against Berry

Berry has owned this series, winning ten straight meetings and holding a 10-2 edge since 2013, with Millsaps still searching for its first win over the Vikings since October 2015. That history sits awkwardly against this season's numbers, because Versus gives Millsaps a slim edge at home, projecting a 27-25 final and a 55 percent win probability in a game that counts in the SAA standings.

The path for Millsaps runs through its offense, graded A- and ranked 38th in D3, which has been putting up big numbers against its recent opponents while going 4-1 in that stretch. Berry counters with an A- defense ranked 37th, part of a unit that has held six of its eight opponents at least 25 percent below their scoring average this season. Berry's overall grade of A- outpaces Millsaps' B-, though Berry has also slid 29 spots in the D3 rankings this year, from 21st to 50th.

Schedule strength may be the separator. Berry has faced the tougher slate, ranked 89th in strength of schedule compared to Millsaps' 185th, even with both teams sitting at 6-2. Versus still likes the host to finally break through, but the margin of two points leaves plenty of room for the series history to hold.