D3 · New Jersey Athletic ConferenceConference game
Salisbury's soft schedule is the real gap in this NJAC matchup
Salisbury#8483%
Kean#13317%Wk 10 (Nov 1), 2026-27: Salisbury 83%, Kean 17% at Kean.
Salisbury's win probability against Kean has swung between 79% and 92% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 83% now.
Salisbury's win probability against Kean has swung between 84% and 94% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 87% now.
Salisbury's win probability against Kean has swung between 87% and 95% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 90% now.
Strength of schedule separates these two more than anything else in the profile. Salisbury carries a schedule rank of 166th among Division III's 234 teams, while Kean's slate ranks 122nd, a notable gap that helps explain why Salisbury has tumbled from 15th to 84th in the Versus Division III rankings this season despite a 6-2 record.
Even with that schedule caveat, Salisbury still grades out ahead on both sides of the ball, carrying an A- offense and an A- defense against Kean's B offense and B- defense. The Seagulls have made a habit of blowouts, winning five of their eight games by 21 points or more, which is part of why Versus still installs them as heavy favorites.
Kean enters having tightened up defensively, not allowing more than 19 points in three straight games, and the Cougars are coming off their first road win of the season. Salisbury has won all 11 meetings in the series since 2011, including the last ten in a row.
Versus projects Salisbury to win 34-18, giving the Seagulls an 83 percent chance in a game that counts in the NJAC standings.
Graded within D3, 234 teams
