Gustavus Adolphus eyes a lopsided margin as Augsburg's offense stalls

The widest gap in this one sits on the side of the ball where Augsburg can least afford it. The Auggies carry a D+ offensive grade and rank 183rd in D3, and they are walking into a Gustavus Adolphus defense graded B+ and ranked 66th. Versus projects a 36-7 result, with the Golden Gusties favored at 95 percent.

Augsburg's recent form backs up the model's confidence. The Auggies have gone 1-4 over their last five games and have dropped six of their last eight overall, a stretch in which their scoring has fallen off well off the pace. Gustavus Adolphus, meanwhile, has held an opponent at least 25 percent below its scoring average in six of its eight games this season, a defensive consistency that lines up poorly for an Augsburg attack already near the bottom of the D3 rankings.

This is a Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference game and it counts in the MIAC standings. Gustavus Adolphus sits at 5-3 and 73rd in D3 overall, with Augsburg at 2-6 and 156th, an 83-spot gap. Augsburg does carry the better strength of schedule rank at 87 against Gustavus Adolphus's 97, but that alone has not been enough to close a gap this wide.