Schedule gap looms large as Truman State visits William Jewell

Both William Jewell and Truman State carry B- overall grades, but the strength of schedule numbers tell a different story: Truman State ranks 102nd in that category among Division II's 162 teams, while William Jewell sits at 150th, among the softest in the division. That gap helps explain why Versus likes Truman State by 20 points despite a 5-4 record that trails William Jewell's 6-2 mark.

Truman State's case rests on its defense, graded A- and ranked 30th in D2, with the Bulldogs holding an opponent at least 25 percent below its scoring average in six of nine games this season. Their offense, graded B+, gives them a two-way identity that William Jewell's unit, graded D+ with a 133rd ranked offense, will have trouble matching.

William Jewell has been built on close finishes, going 4-0 in one-score games this season on the way to its best eight-game start in Versus's records. Truman State has had the opposite experience in tight ones, sitting 1-3 in one-score contests, which adds some uncertainty if this one stays close into the fourth quarter. The series has favored Truman State in every meeting since 2015, and this GLVC matchup counts in the conference standings for both sides.