Dakota State's schedule gap looms large in Frontier trip to Rocky Mountain

The two teams sit almost even in the NAIA rankings, No. 33 Dakota State and No. 36 Rocky Mountain, but the path each took to get there looks nothing alike. Dakota State's strength of schedule rank of 67 is a steep drop from Rocky Mountain's 17th, and that gap matters more here than the three spots separating their overall rankings.

Dakota State brings an A- offense and a B+ defense into the Frontier Conference game, and the numbers back up the grades. No opponent has beaten the Trojans by more than 13 points all season, and they have closed out four of their nine games by 21 points or more, a sign of a team that finishes what it starts even against lesser competition.

Rocky Mountain is harder to pin down. The Bears followed a three-game winning streak with a 41-point road loss to Montana Tech, part of a season that has swung from a 34-point win to a 50-point loss. They do play far better at home, averaging over 10 more points per game there than on the road, which keeps this one competitive on paper.

Versus projects Dakota State to win 30-27, a margin of 3 that lines up with a 57 percent win probability. The result counts in the Frontier Conference standings for both sides.