Schedule gap looms large as Howard Payne visits McMurry

The numbers that separate these two have little to do with their records. Howard Payne sits 82 spots worse in strength of schedule than McMurry, ranked 111th in Division III to McMurry's 29th, even though the Yellow Jackets hold the higher overall mark at 63rd against McMurry's 81st. Both schools faced Hardin-Simmons this season, with Howard Payne losing by 6 and McMurry falling by 31, a result that hints the gap in schedule strength might be overstating how far apart these teams really are.

Howard Payne brings a power rating graded A- and an offense and defense each graded A- as well, and the Yellow Jackets have put three of their seven games away by 21 points or more. But that power rating has slipped for four straight weeks, and both of their losses this season have come against teams with winning records, the same profile McMurry carries into Saturday.

McMurry counters with its own A- graded offense and a defense graded B+, though its overall grade of B trails Howard Payne's B+. Curiously, the War Hawks have actually produced more scoring away from home than in their own stadium this season, an odd wrinkle for a team hosting here. This game counts in the American Southwest Conference standings, and Versus projects Howard Payne to edge it 30-27, giving the Yellow Jackets a 57 percent chance to win on the road.