What Would a 24-Team College Football Playoff Look Like This Season?

Name: Hypothetical 24-Team College Football Playoff projected field and bracket, Week 5, 2026
Creator: Versus Sports Simulator
License: https://www.versussportssimulator.com/versusterms.html

Versus Sports Simulator applies the proposed 2027 24-team College Football Playoff format to the 2026 season, as a hypothetical. With the remaining games simulated from Week 5 ratings, Texas is the projected top seed at the end of the regular season. Updated September 27, 2026.

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Swipe the bracket sideways to see every round.

Projected by Versus Sports Simulator

24-Team College Football Playoff

Hypothetical bracket under the proposed 2027 format, projected for the end of the 2026 regular season, with the remaining games simulated from Week 5 ratings. Seeds 1-8 have a first-round bye

First Round

Second Round

Quarterfinals

Semifinals

at James Madison

at LSU

at Oregon

at Boise St

at UCLA

at Pittsburgh

at Iowa

at Indiana

at Texas

at Florida

at Alabama

at Miami FL

at Utah

at Ohio State

at Notre Dame

at Georgia

National Championship

Versus Sports SimulatorOur projection as of September 27, 2026

We favor the team shown advancing in every game, and the percentage beside it is its chance of winning that matchup.

Top seed Texas

Most likely champion Notre Dame 20.7%

Automatic bids 5 of 24

In this view, Versus projects the 24-team field a selection committee might pick at the end of this season under the proposed format, based on a Versus simulation of every remaining game. The model weighs how good each team is, the record it finishes with, and how hard that record was to earn against the schedule it played. It also rewards a team for winning its conference. When two teams have the same number of losses, the one that won the game between them goes first.

Projected Field

				Full season projectionProjected
Seed#	Team	Bid type	Week 5 rankWk 5	Projected recordRecord	Projected rankRank	Strength of scheduleSoS	Strength of recordSoR	Playoff chanceChance
Seeds 1-8 · first-round bye
1	Texas TEX SEC	SEC champion45.0%	1	11-1	1	1	1	100%
2	Notre Dame ND Independent	Independent at-large	4	12-0	2	45	4	100%
3	Utah UTAH Big 12	Big 12 champion70.3%	14	11-1	8	66	6	99.9%
4	Alabama ALA SEC	SEC at-large	3	10-2	3	11	2	99.2%
5	Miami FL MIA ACC	ACC champion56.7%	7	11-1	9	38	10	99.5%
6	Ohio State OSU Big Ten	Big Ten champion30.7%	8	10-2	4	8	8	96.0%
7	Georgia UGA SEC	SEC at-large	5	10-2	5	31	5	99.6%
8	Florida FLA SEC	SEC at-large	2	10-2	6	3	3	99.3%
Seeds 9-16 · host the first round
9	LSU LSU SEC	SEC at-large	16	9-3	7	15	7	90.2%
10	Indiana IND Big Ten	Big Ten at-large	6	10-2	10	46	9	98.4%
11	Pittsburgh PITT ACC	ACC at-large	25	10-2	13	76	14	99.3%
12	Boise St BSU Pac-12	Group of 6 bid, Pac-12 champion62.1%	23	11-2	23	59	24	83.6%
13	Oregon ORE Big Ten	Big Ten at-large	9	9-3	11	7	17	79.3%
14	UCLA UCLA Big Ten	Big Ten at-large	24	10-2	14	33	11	97.2%
15	Iowa IOWA Big Ten	Big Ten at-large	10	9-3	12	26	12	90.3%
16	James Madison JMU Sun Belt	Sun Belt at-large	33	12-1	32	120	27	95.7%
Seeds 17-24 · first round on the road
17	Texas-San Antonio UTSA AAC	AAC at-large	27	11-2	27	67	40	69.6%
18	Virginia UVA ACC	ACC at-large	51	10-2	20	61	32	83.5%
19	Nebraska NEB Big Ten	Big Ten at-large	18	9-3	17	30	13	83.6%
20	Texas Tech TTU Big 12	Big 12 at-large	12	9-3	19	54	25	86.4%
21	Tennessee TENN SEC	SEC at-large	30	8-4	15	22	15	65.8%
22	Toledo TOL MAC	Mid-American at-large	73	12-1	42	130	48	63.7%
23	Mississippi St MSST SEC	SEC at-large	17	8-4	18	17	16	54.1%
24	Duke DUKE ACC	ACC at-large	13	9-3	26	28	22	51.8%

This 24-team view is a mid-season projection and mock bracket, rebuilt every week. By conference, the projected 24-team field holds 7 SEC teams, 6 Big Ten, 4 ACC, 2 Big 12 and 4 from the Group of 6, plus Notre Dame. The four Power Four champions and one Group of Six team receive automatic bids, and the other 19 places are at-large. The 24-team format has been reported but not approved, and the 2026 playoff is still 12 teams. See what has been reported and what Versus assumed.

First-Round Byes and First-Round Games

Seeds 1 to 8 skip the first round and host its winners. Seeds 9 to 16 host the first round on campus.

First-round bye	Hosts the winner of
No. 1 Texas	No. 17 Texas-San Antonio at No. 16 James Madison
No. 2 Notre Dame	No. 18 Virginia at No. 15 Iowa
No. 3 Utah	No. 19 Nebraska at No. 14 UCLA
No. 4 Alabama	No. 20 Texas Tech at No. 13 Oregon
No. 5 Miami FL	No. 21 Tennessee at No. 12 Boise St
No. 6 Ohio State	No. 22 Toledo at No. 11 Pittsburgh
No. 7 Georgia	No. 23 Mississippi St at No. 10 Indiana
No. 8 Florida	No. 24 Duke at No. 9 LSU

Championship Odds

Versus played this bracket out 20,000 times. A percentage in the bracket is one game against one opponent; these figures cover every way the rest of the bracket could fall, upsets included, and move when you advance a team.

Team	Reach Second RoundR2	Reach QuarterfinalsQF	Reach SemifinalsSF	Reach National ChampionshipFinal	Win titleTitle
2 Notre Dame	100%	83.7%	53.6%	34.8%	20.7%
1 Texas	100%	91.4%	56.4%	35.7%	20.6%
6 Ohio State	100%	77.8%	48.7%	23.4%	11.9%
4 Alabama	100%	74.5%	46.8%	23.1%	11.6%
7 Georgia	100%	73.0%	33.1%	18.5%	9.2%
8 Florida	100%	57.6%	23.9%	12.3%	5.5%
3 Utah	100%	69.2%	31.9%	12.8%	5.3%
5 Miami FL	100%	68.9%	30.8%	12.1%	4.9%
9 LSU	86.3%	40.4%	17.9%	9.6%	4.5%
13 Oregon	75.6%	22.1%	10.4%	3.5%	1.3%
21 Tennessee	65.6%	24.6%	9.6%	3.1%	1.1%
10 Indiana	70.8%	21.6%	6.9%	3.0%	1.1%
11 Pittsburgh	82.5%	20.9%	8.9%	2.5%	0.8%
14 UCLA	60.4%	19.3%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
15 Iowa	56.7%	9.3%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
19 Nebraska	39.6%	11.5%	3.5%	1.0%	0.3%
18 Virginia	43.3%	7.0%	2.2%	0.6%	0.2%
23 Mississippi St	29.2%	5.4%	1.1%	0.4%	<0.1%
12 Boise St	34.4%	6.4%	1.4%	0.2%	<0.1%
16 James Madison	65.7%	6.6%	1.3%	0.3%	<0.1%
20 Texas Tech	24.4%	3.3%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%
17 Texas-San Antonio	34.3%	2.1%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%
22 Toledo	17.5%	1.3%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%
24 Duke	13.7%	2.0%	0.3%	<0.1%	0%

Projected Conference Championships

The Power Four play no title games in this format. These are the other six conferences' games and each projected champion's chance of winning its league.

Conference	Championship game	Site	Projected championChampion
AAC	South Florida at Texas-San Antonio	Higher seed hosts	Texas-San Antonio43.4%
CUSA	Kennesaw St at Liberty	Higher seed hosts	Liberty55.7%
Mid-American	Western Michigan at Toledo	Neutral site	Toledo64.0%
Mountain West	North Dakota St at New Mexico	Higher seed hosts	New Mexico62.6%
Pac-12	Oregon St at Boise St	Higher seed hosts	Boise St62.1%
Sun Belt	Louisiana Tech at James Madison	Higher seed hosts	James Madison71.3%

First Teams Out

Team	ConferenceConf	Projected recordRecord	Playoff chanceChance
Central Florida	Big 12	8-4	57.7%
Penn State	Big Ten	9-3	43.0%
New Mexico	Mountain West	11-2	8.3%
Mississippi	SEC	7-5	39.1%
Wisconsin	Big Ten	8-4	13.7%

What Are the Proposed Rules of the 24-Team Playoff?

The College Football Playoff had not published a 24-team format as of October 17, 2026. ESPN and The Associated Press reported on October 15 and 16, 2026 that the playoff and ESPN had reached a preliminary agreement to expand to 24 teams starting with the 2027 season, pending final approval. The 2026 playoff is still 12 teams. [1] [2] [3]

What Has Been Reported

The College Football Playoff grows to 24 teams starting with the 2027 season. [1] [2] [3]
The 24-team field follows a 19+4+1 model: 19 at-large selections, an automatic bid for each of the four Power Four conference champions (the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC), and one automatic bid for a Group of Six team (from the American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt). [1] [3] [4]
In the 24-team format, seeds 1 to 8 receive a first-round bye and then host a second-round game. [1] [3] [4]
In the 24-team format, seeds 9 to 16 host seeds 17 to 24 in the first round. The 1 seed plays the winner of 16 against 17, the 2 seed plays the winner of 15 against 18, and so on. [1]
The first two rounds of the 24-team playoff are played on campus. The quarterfinals and semifinals stay at the New Year's Six bowls, and the national championship stays at a neutral site in January. [1] [3] [4]
The ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC no longer play conference championship games, and the season starts one week earlier. [1] [2] [3]

What Versus Assumed

The 24-team rules are applied to the 2026 season, so the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC play no championship games this year in this view.
The ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC each crown the team with the fewest conference losses, with ties broken by head-to-head results and then by the Versus rating. The reports say each league decides its own champion but not how.
The six Group of 6 conferences keep their championship games, because the reports describe only the four larger leagues dropping theirs.
The Group of 6 bid goes to the highest-ranked team from those six conferences, whether or not it wins its league. ESPN and The Associated Press describe the bid that way, while On3 describes it as going to the top Group of 6 champion. It is the rule the 2026 playoff already uses. [1] [3] [4]
Notre Dame has no guaranteed place. Its 2026 guarantee, a place whenever it ranks in the top 12, has not been reported for the 24-team format, so it competes for an at-large place like any other team.
Seeding is straight: the eight highest-ranked teams receive the first-round byes whether or not they won a conference.
The bracket is fixed with no reseeding. In the quarterfinals the 1 seed's side of the bracket meets the 8 seed's, 4 meets 5, 3 meets 6 and 2 meets 7, so the 1 and 4 seeds share a half of the bracket as they do in the 12-team format.
No bowl is named for any game in the 24-team bracket, because the reports do not say which bowl hosts which game.

Sources

Sources: College Football Playoff nearing deal for 24-team format in '27. ESPN, Oct. 15, 2026.
CFP reaches 'handshake agreement' with ESPN to air 24-team playoff, sources say. ESPN, Oct. 16, 2026.
College football closer to a 24-team playoff, AP source says. The Associated Press, published by The Boston Globe, Oct. 16, 2026.
CFB insiders report bid structure for new 24-team College Football Playoff. Saturday Down South, reporting On3's Pete Nakos, Brett McMurphy and Chris Low, Oct. 15, 2026.

Last checked against the reports on October 17, 2026. For the format being played this season, see the 12-team projection.

How This Projection Is Built

Every unplayed game on the schedule is run through the same prediction model that powers the Versus game simulator, using the ratings as they stood after Week 5. Those simulations give every team in contention a projected record and a projected rating, and they project the final conference standings, plus a projected winner for each conference championship game still played in this format.

How the Field Is Chosen

This view applies the proposed 2027 format to the 2026 season. The ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC champions are guaranteed a place regardless of ranking, and with no title games each of those champions is the team at the top of its standings. A fifth place goes to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt, whether or not that team wins its conference. The other 19 places go to the highest-ranked teams available, with no special place for Notre Dame. Seeding is straight: the eight highest-ranked teams get the top seeds and the first-round byes, seeds 9 to 16 host the first round, and the first two rounds are played on campus. Versus orders the teams by the same method it uses in the 12-team view. Only the format rules change.

How the Projected Rank Is Read

Every team carries two ranks on this page. One is where it stood in the Week 5 FBS rankings. The other is the projected final rank, which is where Versus expects that team to finish once the season is over. Virginia has the widest gap between the two of anyone in this field, 51st at Week 5 and a projected 20th once the season finishes. The projected final rank is the one that sets the seeding. It is also what separates two teams that finish with the same record.

Strength of Schedule Versus Strength of Record

Strength of schedule measures how hard a team's opponents are. Strength of record measures how unlikely it would be for the 25th best team in the FBS to come out of that same schedule with that same record.

James Madison is the clearest example this week. Its strength of schedule ranks 120th in the FBS, among the easier ones. Going 12-1 against it is still the 27th hardest record to achieve in the division, because a strong team dropped into that schedule would very likely have lost more often. A team can face an easy schedule and still produce a record that was hard to produce, which is why the two columns are ranked separately.

How the Order Is Decided

The order of selection blends two things: how good the model thinks a team is, and how good that team's resume is. Blending them is our best approximation of how a committee weighs the two against each other. Beating a top-25 team in the division earns a little extra credit in the order, and the amount slides with how good that opponent was. A win over the top-ranked team in the FBS is worth half a place. A win over the 25th is worth almost nothing. A team with several of those wins might climb a place or two, which is enough to settle an argument between two similar resumes and not enough to lift a team over one with a better record.

Two more steps follow, because a committee takes them and a formula does not. A conference champion is placed ahead of any team from its own conference that has as many losses or more. When two teams have the same number of losses, the one that won the game between them is placed ahead, unless a team with a better record sits between them. Games already played count, plus any conference championship game in the projection, and two teams that split their games are left as they are. Neither step applies to the views seeded by Versus ratings alone.

Where the Numbers Come From

Most bracketology is one person's opinion written up each week. This projection is computed. The same rating model that produces the FBS football rankings simulates every remaining game, applies the proposed 24-team selection rules to the result, and seeds the field from it. No team is placed by hand, so this bracket changes only when results on the field change the ratings underneath it. The full method, with the math behind each step, is in Inside the Versus Sports Simulator College Football Playoff and FCS Bracket Projections.