NBA Draft Breakout Stars and Busts: Best and Worst Lottery Picks Since 2015

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
June 21, 2025

With the 2025 NBA Draft just a few days away, it’s as good a time as any to go down memory lane. Over the last decade, the lottery portion of the draft – the first 14 picks – has produced some real gems who are the current faces of the league. On the other hand, it has produced some real duds as well – a who’s who of players with high expectation and equal potential who simply didn’t live up to the billing. Who is the best player at each pick over the last decade? Who is the worst? Let’s take a look. It should be noted, I’ve taken it easy on the class of 2024, who are still getting their legs underneath them.

Draft Pick #1: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Anthony Edwards to Minnesota (2020)

The first overall pick has produced a number of great players over the last 10 years. Paolo Banchero and Cade Cunningham are faces of their respective organizations. Victor Wembanyama is in an athletic class all his own. Heck, even Karl Anthony-Towns, a five-time all star and 2016 Rookie of the Year has carved a dominant path. But Edwards is quickly becoming not just the face of the Timberwolves, but a potential face of the NBA itself. He’ll need an NBA title to truly cement it – but in the meantime, he’s been dominant, averaging 23.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.3 steals per game for his career. Those numbers go up in the playoffs, where he’s averaged 26.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.4 steals in 42 games. He’s a three-time All Star and has been named to the All-NBA second team three times.

Worst: Markelle Fultz to Philadelphia (2017)

Incredibly, the Philadelphia 76ers not only drafted two of the biggest first overall draft pick busts in NBA history … but did so in back-to-back years. Ben Simmons’ career in Philadelphia started out solid, but his offensive woes ultimately hindered his ability to progress and continue to be effective. He’s since flamed out in Brooklyn and been ineffective with the Clippers. But unlike Simmons, who won Rookie of the Year, is a three-time all star and has multiple appearances on the All-Defensive team, Markelle Fultz never got off the ground. Fultz proved to be a great scorer at the University of Washington and was drafted to play alongside Simmons in the backcourt. But a strange injury that provided lots of debate between mental and physical kept him from being an effective shooter and limited him to just 14 games as a rookie. Philadelphia ultimately lost its patience with the guard, who was benched when the 76ers acquired Jimmy Butler in 2018. The mystery ailment once again took Fultz out of action and ended his second season early as well. He played just 33 games for Philadelphia before being traded to Orlando, where he proved to be a solid rotation piece at best.

Draft Pick #2: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Ja Morant to Memphis (2019)

Morant has had his run-ins with NBA commissioner Adam Silver with some on-the-court and off-the-court gun issues. But as long as he’s on the court, he’s one of the league’s most electrifying players. Morant entered the league with a big reputation as a scorer and playmaker coming out of Murray State, and he’s lived up to billing at every turn. The guard has averaged 22.6 points, 7.4 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game since entering the league. He won Rookie of the Year in 2020 and is a two-time all star. In 2022 he earned the NBA Most Improved award and was named second team All-NBA.

Worst: Lonzo Ball to L.A. Lakers (2017)

This is a tough one, because James Wiseman and Marvin Bagley – picked in years sandwiched around Morant, have been extremely disappointing given the production levels they achieved at Memphis and Duke, respectively. But Ball entered the NBA Draft with a different type of hype. He averaged nearly 15 points and 8 assists per game in his lone year at UCLA, but was equally as known for the exploits of his father, LaVar Ball. The entire Ball clan found its way onto television screens across the country as LaVar promoted the family’s athletic clothing line, Big Baller Brand. Lonzo, the oldest of the three brothers, was the face of the company and skirted offers from major brands to wear his own signature shoe. Additionally, Lonzo was recording and releasing music. So when Magic Johnson told the public that Ball would be “the new face of the Lakers,” an organization that hadn’t made the playoffs in four years, expectations were high. And at times, the hype was real. Ball recorded two triple-doubles in his first 20 games, and for a time held the record for the youngest player in league history to achieve the feat. However, recurring ankle, knee and shoulder injuries would cost Ball multiple games across multiple seasons. After two years in L.A., Ball was traded to New Orleans where he proved to pair well with Zion Williamson. However, after two more injury shortened years, he was moved to Chicago, where he missed two whole seasons. For his career, Ball’s numbers – when he’s been on the court – are solid. He’s averaged 11.4 points, 5.8 assists and 5.5 rebounds over his six year career. But his lack of availability, paired with the massive hype, make him the biggest bust.

Draft Pick #3: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Luka Doncic to Atlanta, traded to Dallas (2018)

For my money, the third overall pick has produced the best talent over the last decade. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum were taken in back-to-back seasons by the Celtics at three and have helped elevate the Celtics to a consistent force in the East. LaMelo Ball and Evan Mobley, stars in Charlotte and Cleveland, are nothing to sneeze at. But as good as that group of players may be, Luka Doncic has been one of the league’s most dominant players since his selection. Doncic won Rookie of the Year in 2019 and has been named an All Star and first team All-NBA five teams each. He was the league’s scoring champion last season. Doncic has averaged nearly 29 points per game in his career, while also averaging just shy of 9 rebounds and assists per game. He has recorded 82 triple doubles in his career. During the playoffs, Doncic has averaged 30.9 points and 9.2 rebounds and 7.8 assists in 55 career games. His trade from Dallas to the Lakers could go down as one of the biggest gaffes in league history.

Worst: Jahlil Okafor to Philadelphia (2015)

I said I was going to take it easy on this year’s rookie class, so I’ll excuse Reed Sheppard’s lack of impact in Houston this season. Instead we’ll go with Okafor, who started out promising before knee injuries derailed his career. The center had an injury-shortened, but notable rookie campaign where he averaged 17.5 points and 7 rebounds per game on his way to first team All Rookie honors. However, his knees kept him from consistently seeing the court over and over again. Over his seven-year career he’s had five seasons in which he played 30 or fewer games. For his career he’s averaged 10.3 points and 4.7 rebounds while suiting up for five different teams. Additionally, there’s this incident from his rookie season that somehow wasn’t the lowlight for a team that won only 10 games.

Draft Pick #4: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Jaren Jackson to Memphis (2018)

A year before the Grizzlies drafted their offensive centerpiece, the franchise founded their future defensive stopper. After earning Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year honors as a freshman at Michigan State, Jackson brought his prowess to the NBA. Since entering the league, he’s led the NBA in blocks twice, been named first team All-Defense twice, and was named Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. He also showed his potential on offense early on, tying the since-broken Grizzlies record for 3-pointers in a game with nine in a 2019 loss to Milwaukee. For his career Jackson has averaged 18.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per contest.

Worst: Dragan Bender to Phoenix (2016)

A 7-foot big forward from Croatia, Bender was compared favorably to Latvian superstar Kristaps Porzingas, who was taken in the same slot a year before. But while Porzingas has become a 20-point per game scorer with an All Star appearance and a championship ring to his name, Bender never panned out. His fourth-year rookie option was not picked up by Phoenix and he made only 16 appearances with Golden State and Milwaukee before heading to the EuroLeague. Bender finished his short career averaging 5.4 points and 3.9 rebounds per game.

Draft Pick #5: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Trae Young to Dallas, traded to Atlanta (2018)

While Dallas ultimately won the draft night swap that sent Young to Atlanta for Luka Doncic, Young has been extremely successful as well. The guard entered the league after a year at Oklahoma with the reputation as a big-time scorer, and has not disappointed. Young is averaging nearly a double-double for his career with 25.3 points and 9.8 assists per game. A four-time All Star selection, he led the NBA in assists this past season with 880, a whopping 11.6 per game.

Worst: Mario Hezonja to Orlando (2015)

Another Croatian forward, Hezonja had his moments, but struggled to consistently crack the Orlando Magic lineup because of defensive issues. But when his defense improved, his offense suddenly disappeared. The Magic simply never got the complete player they were hoping for with the fifth overall pick. His rookie option was not picked up, and he spent a season with the Knicks and another in Portland before heading back overseas to the EuroLeague. He finished his NBA career averaging 6.9 points and 3.1 rebounds per game. He’s found far more success overseas with BC UNICS in Russia and Real Madrid in Spain.

Draft Pick #6: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Buddy Hield to New Orleans (2016)

This is a pick that could easily change in another year as Bennedict Mathurin proves to be an asset for the Indiana Pacers. But, for now, it’s Buddy Hield, who has proven to be a solid, albeit not elite, scorer for five teams. The guard has averaged 15 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game while shooting 39.7 percent from 3-point range over his career. He was named to the All-Rookie team in 2017 and won the 3-point contest in 2020. He’s still better known for his performance during the 2016 NCAA Tournament with Oklahoma than he is for anything he’s done in the NBA.

Worst: Jarrett Culver to Phoenix, traded to Minnesota (2019)

Culver was solid as a rookie for the Timberwolves, averaging 9.2 points and 3.4 rebounds while playing about 24 minutes per game. But in year two, his role was greatly reduced, and an ankle injury ultimately cut his season short. He was later traded to Memphis and briefly signed with the Hawks, but has mostly seen G League action over the last couple of seasons. His NBA averages are 6.5 points and 2.8 rebounds per game.

Draft Pick #7: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Jamal Murray to Denver (2016)

It feels weird to say that someone who has been such a consistent presence for a Western Conference staple and has appeared in 79 playoff games has never made an all star game. But, that’s what we have here in Jamal Murray. The guard has averaged 18 points, 4.7 assists and 3.8 rebounds while shooting 38 percent from 3-point range for the Nuggets. His stats are even better in the playoffs, where he’s averaged 23.7 points, 6 assists and 4.9 rebounds and helped Denver win the title in 2023. In fact, Murray’s greatest individual accolade while in the NBA is his second team All-Rookie selection in 2017. He’s easily the most under-recognized good player in the league.

Worst: Killian Hayes to Detroit (2020)

Hayes, a French point guard, was known for his playmaking ability heading into the 2020 draft. A labral tear cost him a good portion of his rookie season. Unfortunately for him, the Pistons took Cade Cunningham with the first overall pick the next season, and the role of lead guard was no longer available. He showed flashes, particularly in the 2022-2023 season where he averaged 10.3 points and 6.2 assists per game, but he was ultimately waived by the Pistons the next season and has been primarily in the G League since. For his career he has averaged 8.1 points, 5.2 assists and 2.9 rebounds per game.

Draft Pick #8: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Franz Wagner to Orlando (2021)

A 6’10 forward from Germany, Wagner has played a large part in the rebuild of the Magic from the very beginning. He averaged 15.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists in a campaign that placed him on the All Rookie team. Orlando won just 22 games that season, but with an injection of talent, has improved to a playoff team. Wagner has continued to flourish beside Paolo Banchero, with his scoring, rebound, assist and steal numbers increasing every season of his career. Wagner appeared in only 60 regular season games this past season due to injury, but averaged career bests across the board – 24.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.3 steals in 33.7 minutes of action. For his career the forward has averaged 19.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists.

Worst: Frank Ntilikina to New York (2017)

Before entering the NBA Draft, the point guard was twiced named the best young player in France’s LNB Pro A. But once he made it to the NBA, he was underwhelming. Ntilikina spent his entire rookie contract in New York, but watched his playing time dwindle from 21.9 minutes per game in year one to just 9.8 in year four. He proved to be an inefficient shooter, making just 39.3 percent of his field goals in his best year with the Knicks. He played two years in Dallas and made a brief appearance in Charlotte before heading back to Europe. For his career Ntilikina averaged just 4.8 points and 2.2 assists per contest.

Draft Pick #9: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Deni Avdija to Washington (2020)

The ninth pick hasn’t been particularly strong over the last decade, but Avdija is a solid player who is starting to play his best basketball. The 6’9 forward from Israel was named the Israeli Basketball Premier League MVP before declaring for the draft. The first three years of Avdija’s career in Washington were disappointing for a lottery selection – about 8 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2 assists per game. But in the final year of his rookie contract, Avdija made a drastic leap, averaging 14.7 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists while shooting 50 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from 3-point range. He proved to be a small bright spot for the Wizards, who finished the season with 15 wins. Avdija signed with Portland ahead of this season and continued to expand his game, averaging career highs with 16.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1 steal per game.

Worst: Frank Kaminsky to Charlotte (2015)

Yet another example of a player with all sorts of college hype that simply couldn’t replicate it at the pro level. Kaminsky left the University of Wisconsin as a legend, accumulating consensus All American and National Player of the Year honors as a senior. At 7 feet, 240 pounds with the ability to stretch and hit the 3-point shot, Kaminsky was a rare (although far less so in the years to follow) commodity. But Kaminsky, who showed flashes with 20-plus point scoring nights, was never better than a rotational piece off the bench. His 11.7 points during his second year was his high-water mark scoring wise, and he never did better than 4.6 rebounds per game. He was ultimately part of a string of misses by the Charlotte organization that set the franchise back several years. Kaminsky averaged 8.8 points and 3.8 rebounds over his eight-year career that also saw stops in Phoenix, Atlanta and Houston.

Draft Pick #10: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Mikal Bridges to Philadelphia, traded to Phoenix (2018)

The 10th pick is yet another slot that hasn’t fared too well over the last decade. But amongst the rough is a consistent force in Bridges. The 6’6 guard/forward has had the ability that every coach in America covets – availability. Bridges has never missed a game since being drafted, even concealing and playing on injuries that would keep players out for extended periods of time. Just as importantly, he’s produced. Bridges improved from 8.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.6 steals per game as a rookie to 17.2 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game in year five before being traded to Brooklyn. He was named All-Defensive first team for the 2021-2022 season. For his career, Bridges has averaged 14.8 points, 4 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.2 steals per game. His scoring average had increased every season until this past one with the New York Knicks, but he also recorded a career-best 3.7 assists per game.

Worst: Johnny Davis to Washington (2022)

I was tempted to name Thon Maker here given the amount of hype the Sudanese forward had coming out of high school. But as bad as Maker’s stats may have been (4.6 points, 2.8 rebounds per game across five years and three teams), he at least has 10 playoff starts to his name. Davis was a consensus first team All-American at Wisconsin and it simply never translated to the NBA for him. He played 15 minutes per game as a rookie for Washington, 5.8 points, 2.3 rebounds and an assist per game. However, his minutes – and statistics diminished over the next two seasons. He was part of a trade to Memphis this past season and was promptly waived by the Grizzlies. Davis has only averaged 11.4 minutes in 112 career games.

Draft Pick #11: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Charlotte, traded to L.A. Clippers (2018)

The 2025 NBA MVP likely has two teams wishing they made different moves. The guard was drafted by Charlotte, but traded to the Clippers on draft night for Miles Bridges. With all due respect to Bridges, who has provided the Hornets with 20 points per game each of the last three seasons, he’s not SGA. And the Clippers, who shipped him to the Thunder after one season as part of the mega package that brought in Paul George, would probably like his services as well. Gilgeous-Alexander has been an efficient scorer from day one, shooting just over 50 percent from his career, including 35.5 percent from 3-point range. He’s averaged more than 30 points per game each of the last three seasons, including a league-leading 32.7 this year. He’s been named to three consecutive NBA All Star games and named All-NBA first team three years in a row as well.

Worst: Jett Howard to Orlando (2023)

Juwan’s son is still young and has lots of basketball ahead of him. However in his rookie season, he managed just 3.7 minutes per game in just 18 appearances and spent most of his time in the G League. He spent the entirety of this season in the G League as well.

Draft Pick #12: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Tyrese Haliburton to Sacramento (2020)

This wasn’t an easy pick with Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams being drafted in the same slot two years later, but the (now) Indiana star has proven himself to be one of the NBA’s elite point guards. The two-time all star and two-time member of the All-NBA third team led the league in assists during the 2023-2024 season (10.3 per game). Haliburton finished third in his class’ Rookie of the Year race behind LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards after posting 13 points, 5.3 assists and 3 rebounds per game for the Kings. But with De’Aaron Fox locked in as Sacramento’s starting point guard, Haliburton was moved to Indiana where he proceeded to increase his numbers across the board.

Worst: Joshua Primo to San Antonio (2021)

Primo averaged 5.8 points on only 37.4 percent shooting primarily coming off the bench during his rookie season. The guard was briefly suspended and waived for the Spurs after allegations of indecent exposure. He appeared in two games during the 2023-2024 season for the Clippers before getting waived and was last on Chicago’s G League roster.

Draft Pick #13: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Donovan Mitchell to Denver, traded to Utah (2017)

An argument can be made for Devin Booker here – but if you asked NBA GMs which player you’d rather start your franchise with, I think Mitchell would win out. “Spida” was an immediate impact player for the Jazz, averaging 20.5 points, 3.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.5 assists on his way to All-Rookie team honors and a runner-up finish to Ben Simmons for the Rookie of the Year award. The six-time All Star selection hasn’t slowed down since, averaging 24.7 points, 4.7 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.4 steals for his career. All of his numbers go up in the playoffs, where he’s averaged 28.3 points, 5 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.4 steals across 63 career games. He was named first team All-NBA for the 2024-2025 season and won the slam dunk contest in 2018.

Worst: Georgios Papagiannis to Phoenix, traded to Sacramento (2016)

A hulking 7’2, 250-plus pound center, Papagiannis began playing professional basketball in Greece at 14. His size and skill gave teams a reason to take a look, but his lack of athleticism entering an NBA that was moving away from slow-footed big men gave many experts pause. It was a big surprise when he was drafted as highly as he was, and not much of one when things didn’t work out. Even still, Papagiannis’ career in the NBA was abnormally short for a lottery pick. He appeared in only 38 games over two seasons for Sacramento before being waived. He was briefly picked up by Portland before once again being waived. He has since made a much better career playing in Greece and Turkey. His final NBA statistics were 4.1 points and 3.1 rebounds in 12.2 minutes per game.

Draft Pick #14: Best and Worst Since 2015

Best: Bam Adebayo to Miami (2017)

Miami has had its share of great post players put on the Heat jersey. When Adebayo eventually retires, he’ll be mentioned right alongside them. Adebayo’s first two seasons in Miami saw him mainly coming off the bench in rotation with Hassan Whiteside, Kelly Olynek and James Johnson. During that time he averaged roughly 8 points and 6 rebounds in a little more than 20 minutes per game. But starting in year three, the former Kentucky Wildcat cemented himself on the first team, starting every game in which he’s played since the 2019-2020 season. His numbers jumped to 15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.1 steals per game that season. For his career, the three-time All Star and five time second team All Defense selection has averaged 15.7 points, 8.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.1 steals and just under a block per game. He’s averaged 16.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists across 78 playoff games.

Worst: Romeo Langford to Boston (2019)

Here’s the thing about shooting guards – unless they’re all world defensively, they’ve got to be able to shoot. And while Langford didn’t have the reputation as a 3-point sniper coming out of Indiana, he could still find the basket. Unfortunately, Langford suffered a thumb injury that he played through at Indiana that ultimately hindered his ability once he got to the NBA. He later tore a ligament in his right wrist that caused him to miss some time and once again hindered his shot. He had some bright moments, including the 2020-2021 playoffs where he averaged 9 points a game and drew a pair of starts with the Celtics missing multiple regulars due to injury. But he was never able to show enough to stick around and in five seasons between Boston and San Antonio, averaged only 4.6 points and 2.1 rebounds per game in 141 career contests.