CFB Week 13: Most to Win, Most to Lose

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
November 21, 2025

We’ve got just two weeks of regular season remaining (not counting the standalone Army-Navy week) and several teams are taking a step down with out of conference opponents ahead of rivalry week. However there are other teams that have competitive games scheduled this week, and they can potentially make or break their chances of ultimately being included in the College Football Playoff bracket when it is released on December 7. Who has a lot to gain and who has a lot to lose? Let’s talk about it …

Which Teams Have a Lot to Gain?

James Madison (9-1) vs Washington State (5-5)

Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. (EST) TV: ESPN+ FanDuel line: JMU -13.5 VSS line: JMU -9.79

The group of five spot has rotated between AAC teams so far, and there appears to be a feeling that it leaves JMU permanently on the outside looking in. Regardless, the Dukes have the benefit of sitting in a good position while American teams continue to pick each other off. The Dukes have already locked up a spot in the Sun Belt championship game, so stacking wins in the meantime will at least give them the ability to potentially make a leap into the rankings. A win over Washington State isn’t going to move the needle, but 10 victories can’t hurt.

No. 14 Vanderbilt (8-2) vs Kentucky (5-5)

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. (EST) TV: ESPN FanDuel line: Vanderbilt -9.5 VSS line: Vanderbilt -10.22

Vanderbilt’s loss to Texas two weeks ago certainly took some wind out of the Commodores’ sails, but Clark Lea’s squad is still right on the edge of taking a spot. A home win against Kentucky isn’t inherently enough to make a jump into the bracket, but paired with a loss by Oregon, Notre Dame or Oklahoma could sneak them in next week.

No. 16 Georgia Tech (9-1) vs Pittsburgh (7-3)

Kickoff: 7:00 (EST) TV: ESPN FanDuel line: Georgia Tech -2.5 VSS line: Pittsburgh -2.03

Georgia Tech can lock up a spot in the ACC Championship game with a win over Pitt, who has had the upper hand in the series since the Panthers joined the ACC. Despite leading the conference, Georgia Tech has been viewed as behind both UVA and Miami when the committee has released its initial three brackets, but a win over Pitt – who is also playing for its conference championship life – can help elevate Georgia Tech heading into its rivalry game against Georgia. A loss to the Bulldogs – unless it’s a blowout – won’t hurt.

North Texas (9-1) at Rice (5-5)

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. (EST) TV: ESPNU FanDuel line: UNT -18.5 VSS line: UNT -27.36

As already mentioned, the group of five spot in the playoffs has so far been a turnstile and if that trend continues with a Tulane loss, North Texas could very easily be the beneficiary with a road win over Rice. At 9-1 the Mean Green are in a very complicated mix to make the AAC Championship game. However, the one loss was a blowout at the hands of the best team on the schedule – South Florida. North Texas will need to win convincingly against the Owls to be safe.

No. 11 Brigham Young (9-1) at Cincinnati (7-3)

Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. (EST) TV: FOX FanDuel line: BYU -2.5 VSS line: BYU -8.12

BYU was included in the initial playoff bracket before falling to Texas Tech. Now on the outside looking in, the Cougars merely need one win to clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship game, a likely rematch against the Red Raiders. Locking up the spot with a road win against Cincinnati, which just fell out of the Top 25, would be a great resume builder and would likely be enough to put BYU back in the field if a current team in the field loses this week.

Which Teams Have a Lot to Lose?

No. 8 Oklahoma (8-2) vs. No. 22 Missouri (7-3)

Kickoff: Noon (EST) TV: ABC FanDuel line: Oklahoma -7.5 VSS line: Oklahoma -6.31

Oklahoma is sitting on two losses. Is a three loss with no shot at making a conference championship game going to make the field, even if it's from the mighty SEC? Unlikely. The Sooners are in a must-win situation against Missouri, which is simply playing for bowl position at this point. The Sooners have had to grind out three straight one-possession wins over Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama. Will they have one more in them? The pressure will be on in Norman this week.

No. 13 Miami (8-2) at Virginia Tech (3-7)

Kickoff: Noon (EST) TV: ESPN FanDuel line: Miami -17.5 VSS line: Miami -23.14

While Miami has been the playoff committee’s favored ACC team, there’s no scenario where the Hurricanes get into the playoffs without at least making the conference championship game. A loss at Virginia Tech would take the Hurricanes out of contention for both. The series has been pretty much even over the last 30 years going back to the teams’ membership in the Big East, but Miami has won four straight and four of the last five in Blacksburg. The Hokies are out of bowl contention and have the ability to play spoiler while newly hired head coach James Franklin looks on.

No. 24 Tulane (8-2) at Temple (5-5)

Kickoff: 3:45 p.m. (EST) TV: ESPNU FanDuel line: Tulane -7.5 VSS line: Tulane -5.64

I promise this is the final mention of the group of five turnstile … but Tulane is the current beneficiary. While Temple isn’t exactly the strongest opponent, sitting at 5-5 with no strong wins, the Owls are playing for their bowl lives and have a chance to pull the upset on senior day. Additionally, Tulane would be knocked out of a spot in the conference championship with a loss.

High Stakes

No. 15 Southern Cal (8-2) at No. 7 Oregon (9-1)

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. (EST) TV: CBS FanDuel line: Oregon -9.5 VSS line: Oregon -8.74

Southern Cal is currently on the outside looking in while Oregon has a first-round home game in this week’s playoff bracket. A home win for Oregon would do nothing but solidify its spot in the bracket and leave the door open for an outside shot at the conference championship game. On the other hand, a win by Southern Cal would likely vault the Trojans into the top 10 and leave the Ducks hoping the committee favors them over a Big 12 or ACC school.