Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: Arkansas St 68%, SF Austin 32% at SF Austin.
Arkansas St's win probability against SF Austin has held at 68% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Arkansas St's win probability against SF Austin has held at 73% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Arkansas St's win probability against SF Austin has held at 78% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.