Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: New Haven 56%, Chicago St 44% at New Haven.
New Haven's win probability against Chicago St has held at 44% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
New Haven's win probability against Chicago St has held at 50% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
New Haven's win probability against Chicago St has held at 56% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.