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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 4 (Oct 30), 2026-27: San Jose 60%, Chicago 40% at San Jose.
San Jose's win probability against Chicago has swung between 48% and 53% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 52% now.
San Jose's win probability against Chicago has swung between 52% and 57% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 56% now.
San Jose's win probability against Chicago has held at 60% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.