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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 4 (Oct 31), 2026-27: Carolina 58%, Vegas 42% at Carolina.
Carolina's win probability against Vegas has swung between 44% and 57% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 50% now.
Carolina's win probability against Vegas has swung between 48% and 61% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 54% now.
Carolina's win probability against Vegas has swung between 52% and 65% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 58% now.