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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 2 (Oct 30), 2026-27: Memphis 59%, Indiana 41% at Indiana.
Memphis' win probability against Indiana has swung between 28% and 59% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 59% now.
Memphis' win probability against Indiana has swung between 34% and 65% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 65% now.
Memphis' win probability against Indiana has swung between 40% and 71% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 71% now.