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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 2 (Oct 30), 2026-27: Houston 60%, Minnesota 40% at Houston.
Houston's win probability against Minnesota has swung between 38% and 49% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 48% now.
Houston's win probability against Minnesota has swung between 45% and 55% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 54% now.
Houston's win probability against Minnesota has swung between 51% and 61% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 60% now.