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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 11 (Nov 8), 2026-27: Iowa 82%, North Texas 18% at Iowa.
Iowa's win probability against North Texas has swung between 63% and 76% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 73% now.
Iowa's win probability against North Texas has swung between 69% and 81% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 78% now.
Iowa's win probability against North Texas has swung between 74% and 85% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 82% now.