Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
Wk 3 (Sep 13), 2026-27: Illinois 94%, Southern Illinois 6% at Illinois.
Illinois' win probability against Southern Illinois has swung between 87% and 93% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 91% now.
Illinois' win probability against Southern Illinois has swung between 89% and 95% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 93% now.
Illinois' win probability against Southern Illinois has held at 94% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.