North Carolina at Duke Game Prediction
PREDICTED
FINAL SCORE
POINT SPREAD
North Carolina by 5.49
TOTAL POINTS
48
UPDATED
Sunday, October 11, 2026
See this week's FBS predictions
RATINGS
Duke
North Carolina 
|
87
B+
|
Overall |
89
B+
|
|
83
B-
|
Power |
89
B+
|
|
81
B-
|
Offensive |
87
B+
|
|
85
B
|
Defensive |
92
A-
|
|
81
B-
|
SoS (Current) |
97
A+
|
|
86
B
|
SoS (Future) |
90
A-
|
RANKINGS
Duke
North Carolina
| 44 #45 overall |
Overall | 35 #35 overall |
| 56 #58 overall |
Power | 36 #36 overall |
| 64 #72 overall |
Offensive | 43 #44 overall |
| 49 #50 overall |
Defensive | 24 #24 overall |
| 65 #66 overall |
SoS (Current) | 9 #9 overall |
| 46 #46 overall |
SoS (Future) | 33 #33 overall |
North Carolina#3563%
Duke#4437%Wk 7 (Oct 11), 2026-27: North Carolina 63%, Duke 37% at Duke.
North Carolina's win probability against Duke is trending up — from 40% to 63% over the last 6 weeks.
North Carolina's win probability against Duke is trending up — from 47% to 68% over the last 6 weeks.
North Carolina's win probability against Duke is trending up — from 53% to 74% over the last 6 weeks.
North Carolina favored
Duke favored
Even, 50%
Drag across the chart
Week-by-week table
| Week | Season | At Duke | Neutral | At North Carolina |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 21 | 2025-26 | 16% | 20% | 25% |
| Pre | 2026-27 | 36% | 42% | 48% |
| Wk 1 | 2026-27 | 40% | 47% | 53% |
| Wk 2 | 2026-27 | 37% | 43% | 49% |
| Wk 3 | 2026-27 | 38% | 44% | 51% |
| Wk 4 | 2026-27 | 24% | 29% | 35% |
| Wk 5 | 2026-27 | 29% | 34% | 40% |
| Wk 6 | 2026-27 | 50% | 56% | 62% |
| Wk 7 | 2026-27 | 63% | 68% | 74% |
RECORDS
Duke
North Carolina
|
0-0 (0%) |
Head to Head |
0-0 (0%) |
|
4-1 (80%) |
Overall |
3-2 (60%) |
|
3-0 (100%) |
Home |
1-1 (50%) |
|
1-1 (50%) |
Away |
1-1 (50%) |
|
0-0 (0%) |
Versus FBS Top 25 |
0-1 (0%) |
|
1-0 (100%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
2-2 (50%) |
|
3-1 (75%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
1-0 (100%) |
|
4-1 (80%) |
Last 5 Games |
3-2 (60%) |
SUPERLATIVES
Duke
North Carolina
| #66 Illinois | Best Win | #44 Pittsburgh |
| #71 Georgia Tech | Worst Loss | #31 Clemson |
| 55 pts vs #304 William & Mary | Largest MOV | 32 pts vs #124 East Tennessee St |
| 3 pts vs #71 Georgia Tech | Largest MOD | 11 pts vs #2 Notre Dame |
OTHER STATISTICS
Duke
North Carolina
| 34 | Points per Game | 23.4 |
| 14.4 | Points Against | 19 |
| 38 | Home PPG | 30.5 |
| 5.7 | Home PA | 20 |
| 28 | Away PPG | 20.5 |
| 27.5 | Away PA | 22.5 |
| 12-17 | Opponent Record | 21-8 |
| 132.2 | Avg Opponent Rank | 63.2 |
| W 4 | Longest Streak | W 2 |
| L 1 | Current Streak | W 1 |
RECENT OPPONENTS
Duke
North Carolina
| Oct 10 | at Georgia Tech (2-3) | L25-28 | Oct 10 | at Pittsburgh (5-1) | W21-17 |
| Sep 26 | vs William & Mary (3-4) | W62-7 | Oct 3 | vs #2 Notre Dame (6-0) | L26-37 |
| Sep 19 | vs Stanford (2-4) | W35-7 | Sep 19 | at Clemson (3-2) | L20-28 |
| Sep 12 | at Illinois (3-3) | W31-27 | Sep 12 | vs East Tennessee St (5-2) | W35-3 |
| Sep 5 | vs Tulane (2-3) | W17-3 | Aug 29 | TCU (2-3) | W15-10 |