Valparaiso at Dayton Game Prediction
PREDICTED
FINAL SCORE
POINT SPREAD
Dayton by 6.79
TOTAL POINTS
47
UPDATED
Sunday, October 25, 2026
See this week's FCS predictions
RATINGS
Valparaiso
Dayton 
|
70
C-
|
Overall |
89
B+
|
|
66
D
|
Power |
69
D+
|
|
64
D
|
Offensive |
69
D+
|
|
68
D+
|
Defensive |
70
C-
|
|
63
D-
|
SoS (Current) |
61
D-
|
|
64
D
|
SoS (Full Season) |
60
D-
|
|
66
D
|
SoR (Current) |
86
B
|
|
68
D+
|
SoR (Full Season) |
79
C+
|
RANKINGS
Valparaiso
Dayton
| 95 #402 overall |
Overall | 33 #187 overall |
| 110 #283 overall |
Power | 99 #262 overall |
| 116 #316 overall |
Offensive | 100 #269 overall |
| 101 #261 overall |
Defensive | 96 #254 overall |
| 118 #368 overall |
SoS (Current) | 125 #413 overall |
| 114 #336 overall |
SoS (Full Season) | 128 #446 overall |
Dayton#3365%
Valparaiso#9535%Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Dayton 65%, Valparaiso 35% at Dayton.
Dayton's win probability against Valparaiso has swung between 36% and 69% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 53% now.
Dayton's win probability against Valparaiso has swung between 42% and 74% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 60% now.
Dayton's win probability against Valparaiso has swung between 48% and 79% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 65% now.
Dayton favored
Valparaiso favored
Even, 50%
Drag across the chart
Week-by-week table
| Week | At Valparaiso | Neutral | At Dayton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre | 78% | 82% | 86% |
| Wk 1 | 70% | 76% | 80% |
| Wk 2 | 74% | 79% | 83% |
| Wk 3 | 69% | 74% | 79% |
| Wk 4 | 67% | 72% | 77% |
| Wk 5 | 63% | 69% | 74% |
| Wk 6 | 45% | 51% | 57% |
| Wk 7 | 36% | 42% | 48% |
| Wk 8 | 56% | 62% | 68% |
| Wk 9 | 53% | 60% | 65% |
RECORDS
Valparaiso
Dayton
|
0-0 (0%) |
Head to Head |
0-0 (0%) |
|
4-4 (50%) |
Overall |
6-1 (85.7%) |
|
3-1 (75%) |
Home |
4-0 (100%) |
|
1-3 (25%) |
Away |
2-1 (66.7%) |
|
0-0 (0%) |
Versus FCS Top 25 |
0-0 (0%) |
|
1-1 (50%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
1-0 (100%) |
|
3-3 (50%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
5-1 (83.3%) |
|
3-2 (60%) |
Last 5 Games |
4-1 (80%) |
SUPERLATIVES
Valparaiso
Dayton
| #394 Presbyterian | Best Win | #175 Butler |
| #404 Murray St | Worst Loss | #458 Drake |
| 46 pts vs #589 Lawrence Tech | Largest MOV | 28 pts vs #572 Morehead St |
| 25 pts vs #328 San Diego | Largest MOD | 8 pts vs #458 Drake |
OTHER STATISTICS
Valparaiso
Dayton
| 27 | Points per Game | 32 |
| 21.6 | Points Against | 20 |
| 33 | Home PPG | 41.5 |
| 16.5 | Home PA | 21.8 |
| 21 | Away PPG | 19.3 |
| 26.8 | Away PA | 17.7 |
| 23-41 | Opponent Record | 20-36 |
| 401.5 | Avg Opponent Rank | 421.1 |
| L 3 | Longest Streak | W 3 |
| W 1 | Current Streak | W 3 |
RECENT OPPONENTS
Valparaiso
Dayton
| Oct 24 | vs Presbyterian (4-4) | W24-7 | Oct 24 | vs San Diego (3-5) | W37-32 |
| Oct 17 | at San Diego (3-5) | L13-38 | Oct 17 | at Butler (6-2) | W19-9 |
| Oct 10 | vs Drake (2-6) | W21-13 | Oct 10 | vs Morehead St (2-6) | W56-28 |
| Oct 3 | at Morehead St (2-6) | W37-3 | Oct 3 | at Drake (2-6) | L22-30 |
| Sep 26 | vs Butler (6-2) | L28-33 | Sep 19 | at Eastern Kentucky (3-5) | W17-14 |
| Sep 19 | at Indiana St (2-6) | L16-39 | Sep 12 | vs Thomas More (2-6) | W30-7 |
| Sep 12 | at Murray St (1-7) | L18-27 | Aug 29 | vs Fairmont St (2-6) | W43-20 |
| Aug 29 | vs Lawrence Tech (3-5) | W59-13 |