Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Cal Baptist 68%, UC Riverside 32% at UC Riverside.
Cal Baptist's win probability against UC Riverside has swung between 68% and 73% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 68% now.
Cal Baptist's win probability against UC Riverside has held at 74% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Cal Baptist's win probability against UC Riverside has held at 80% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.