Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: St Joseph's PA 57%, Penn St 43% at St Joseph's PA.
St Joseph's PA's win probability against Penn St has swung between 40% and 45% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 42% now.
St Joseph's PA's win probability against Penn St has swung between 47% and 52% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 49% now.
St Joseph's PA's win probability against Penn St has held at 57% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.