Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Houston 83%, California 17% at a neutral site.
Houston's win probability against California is trending down — from 81% to 78% over the last 6 updates.
Houston's win probability against California has swung between 83% and 88% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 83% now.
Houston's win probability against California has held at 87% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.