Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Hawaii 69%, UT Arlington 31% at Hawaii.
Hawaii's win probability against UT Arlington has swung between 55% and 60% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 55% now.
Hawaii's win probability against UT Arlington has swung between 62% and 67% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 62% now.
Hawaii's win probability against UT Arlington has held at 69% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.