UC Santa Cruz at UC Merced Game Prediction
PREDICTED
FINAL SCORE
POINT SPREAD
UC Merced by 15.03
TOTAL POINTS
143
UPDATED
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
See this week's CBB D2 predictions
PRESEASON RATINGS
*Ratings are relative to Division (D1, D2, D3)
UC Merced
UC Santa Cruz 
|
74
C
|
Overall |
91
A-
|
|
72
C-
|
Power |
89
B+
|
|
66
D
|
Offensive |
86
B
|
|
84
B
|
Defensive |
89
B+
|
|
81
B-
|
SoS (Current) |
97
A+
|
|
81
B-
|
SoS (Full Season) |
97
A+
|
PRESEASON RANKINGS
UC MercedD2
UC Santa CruzD3
| 193 #648 overall |
Overall | 88 #636 overall |
| 203 #574 overall |
Power | 101 #759 overall |
| 247 #658 overall |
Offensive | 140 #790 overall |
| 115 #483 overall |
Defensive | 102 #734 overall |
| 133 #498 overall |
SoS (Current) | 23 #627 overall |
| 133 #498 overall |
SoS (Full Season) | 23 #627 overall |
UC MercedD2 #19387%UC Santa CruzD3 #8813%Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: UC Merced 87%, UC Santa Cruz 13% at UC Merced.
UC Merced's win probability against UC Santa Cruz is trending up — from 70% to 75% over the last 6 updates.
UC Merced's win probability against UC Santa Cruz is trending up — from 77% to 82% over the last 6 updates.
UC Merced's win probability against UC Santa Cruz is trending up — from 83% to 87% over the last 6 updates.
UC Merced favored
UC Santa Cruz favored
Even, 50%
Drag across the chart
Week-by-week table
| Week | Season | At UC Santa Cruz | Neutral | At UC Merced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 17 | 2025-26 | 67% | 75% | 82% |
| Wk 18 | 2025-26 | 71% | 78% | 84% |
| Wk 19 | 2025-26 | 70% | 77% | 83% |
| Wk 20 | 2025-26 | 70% | 77% | 84% |
| Wk 21 | 2025-26 | 71% | 78% | 84% |
| Wk 22 | 2025-26 | 69% | 76% | 82% |
| Wk 23 | 2025-26 | 69% | 76% | 83% |
| Wk 24 | 2025-26 | 69% | 76% | 83% |
| Pre | 2026-27 | 75% | 82% | 87% |
2025-2026 RECORDS
UC Merced
UC Santa Cruz
|
0-0 (0%) |
Head to Head |
0-0 (0%) |
|
9-17 (34.6%) |
Overall |
10-12 (45.5%) |
|
6-6 (50%) |
Home |
1-3 (25%) |
|
3-11 (21.4%) |
Away |
7-8 (46.7%) |
|
0-2 (0%) |
Versus Own Division Top 25 |
0-8 (0%) |
|
2-11 (15.4%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
3-11 (21.4%) |
|
7-6 (53.8%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
7-1 (87.5%) |
|
4-6 (40%) |
Last 10 Games |
5-5 (50%) |
2025-2026 SUPERLATIVES
UC Merced
UC Santa Cruz
| #444 Humboldt St | Best Win | #667 Puget Sound |
| #869 S Francisco St | Worst Loss | #678 Whittier |
| 20 pts vs #444 Humboldt St | Largest MOV | 30 pts vs #1006 George Fox |
| 54 pts vs #31 St Mary's CA | Largest MOD | 45 pts vs #137 San Francisco |
OTHER 2025-2026 STATISTICS
UC Merced
UC Santa Cruz
| 68.3 | Points per Game | 73.3 |
| 73.4 | Points Against | 77.3 |
| 72.3 | Home PPG | 75.3 |
| 70.2 | Home PA | 82.5 |
| 64.9 | Away PPG | 71.2 |
| 76.1 | Away PA | 76.5 |
| 402-360 | Opponent Record | 357-245 |
| 506.2 | Avg Opponent Rank | 512.7 |
| L 7 | Longest Streak | W 4 |
| L 3 | Current Streak | L 3 |
RECENT OPPONENTS
UC Merced
UC Santa Cruz
| Feb 28 | at CSU East Bay (33-1) | L51-58 | Feb 27 | vs Chris Newport (25-6) | L74-77 |
| Feb 26 | at S Francisco St (4-26) | L69-74 | Feb 24 | vs Mary Washington (31-3) | L52-76 |
| Feb 21 | vs CS Dom. Hills (22-9) | L75-78 | Feb 1 | at Mary Washington (31-3) | L63-93 |
| Feb 19 | vs Cal St-LA (9-19) | W86-69 | Jan 30 | Regent (4-18) | W78-67 |
| Feb 14 | at CS Poly Pomona (17-12) | L53-72 | Jan 29 | at Chris Newport (25-6) | L64-71 |
| Feb 12 | at CS San Bern. (14-15) | L65-81 | Jan 10 | at Pomona-Pitzer (9-15) | W66-62 |
| Feb 7 | vs CS Chico (7-18) | W86-76 | Dec 28 | at Pac Lutheran (8-16) | W77-70 |
| Feb 5 | vs Humboldt St (17-16) | W83-63 | Dec 27 | at Puget Sound (16-10) | W62-58 |
| Jan 31 | at CS San Marcos (13-14) | W80-66 | Dec 21 | at USC (18-14) | L63-102 |
| Jan 29 | at CS Monterey Bay (17-12) | L83-89 | Dec 17 | at Pomona-Pitzer (9-15) | W67-58 |