Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
Wk 24 (Apr 7), 2025-26: Vanderbilt 99%, Ark Pine Bluff 1% at Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt's win probability against Ark Pine Bluff has held at 99% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.