Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
Wk 24 (Apr 7), 2025-26: Michigan 86%, Vanderbilt 14% at Michigan.
Michigan's win probability against Vanderbilt has swung between 69% and 74% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 73% now.
Michigan's win probability against Vanderbilt has held at 80% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Michigan's win probability against Vanderbilt has held at 86% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.