Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
Wk 24 (Apr 7), 2025-26: Evansville 59%, Ball St 41% at Evansville.
Evansville's win probability against Ball St has held at 40% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Evansville's win probability against Ball St is trending down — from 52% to 49% over the last 6 weeks.
Evansville's win probability against Ball St has held at 59% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.