Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
Wk 24 (Apr 7), 2025-26: Illinois St 62%, Charlotte 38% at Charlotte.
Illinois St's win probability against Charlotte has held at 62% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Illinois St's win probability against Charlotte has held at 70% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Illinois St's win probability against Charlotte has held at 78% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.