UC Davis favored despite N Colorado's 81-spot ranking edge

Versus places N Colorado 81 spots higher in the country than UC Davis, No. 100 to No. 181, but that gap does not carry over into this projection. The model has UC Davis winning by nine, 70-61, giving the Aggies a 72 percent chance in a non-conference game.

The numbers explain why. N Colorado's No. 233 scoring offense runs into UC Davis' No. 129 scoring defense, and while N Colorado carries a B+ overall grade against UC Davis' B-, the power, offense and defense grades all tilt toward the Aggies, who are graded B across the board compared to N Colorado's C and C+ marks. UC Davis has also fallen 29 spots since the preseason, while N Colorado has climbed 50, including a stretch where it reached its highest Versus ranking since 2022 and sits third in the Big Sky Conference.

UC Davis enters at 1-2 off an 86-52 win over CS Fullerton, its most lopsided victory since January 2025. N Colorado is 1-1 after beating Sam Houston State. The two last met in December 2025, when N Colorado won 57-47.