What does an 80% win probability actually mean?

A game is played once, so no one can line up a hundred versions of it and count. What can be checked is every game Versus has ever called at roughly 80%, and whether that side won about 80% of the time. Across 20,830 college football games in 2021-2026, each confidence band lands within 2.3 percentage points of the odds stated.

Is this the same as beating the betting line?

No. This page measures game outcomes: when Versus favors a team, how often that team wins. Performance against a sportsbook spread is a separate and much harder question, and nothing on this page should be read as an answer to it.

How many college football games has Versus predicted?

This page covers 20,830 games carrying a published win probability across 5 complete seasons (2021-2026), spanning FBS, FCS, Division II, Division III and NAIA. When Versus stated 50-60%, the favorite won 53.2% of 3,341 games. When Versus stated 60-70%, the favorite won 62.9% of 3,518 games. When Versus stated 70-80%, the favorite won 73.3% of 3,311 games. When Versus stated 80-90%, the favorite won 83.7% of 4,128 games. When Versus stated 90-100%, the favorite won 95.2% of 6,532 games.

College football win probability accuracy

Every college football game Versus has put odds on since 2021, and what actually happened.

WHAT AN 80% CHANCE MEANS

A football game is played once. Nobody can line up a hundred versions of the same Saturday and count how many a team wins, so the familiar way of describing odds is something that can never actually be checked.

Here is what can. Take every game Versus has ever called at roughly 80%, and ask how many of those were won. Do it again at 70%, at 90%, and everywhere in between. If the odds mean anything, the answer should come back close to the number stated. That is the whole of this page.

Across 20,830 games and 5 complete seasons, every band lands within 2.3 percentage points of what was stated.

Versus Sports Simulator

Do our odds come in?

College Football · 2021-2026 · 20,830 games

77.3% 16,092 of 20,830 Favorites That Won

When Versus stated…

50-60% 1,777 of 3,341 53.2%

60-70% 2,214 of 3,518 62.9%

70-80% 2,426 of 3,311 73.3%

80-90% 3,457 of 4,128 83.7%

90-100% 6,218 of 6,532 95.2%

Every band within 2.3 points of the odds stated.

VersusSportsSimulator.com 5 complete seasons · 2021-2026

STATED ODDS VERSUS WHAT HAPPENED

We said	Games	Average odds stated	Share that won	Difference
50-60%	3,341	54.9%	53.2%	-1.7
60-70%	3,518	65.2%	62.9%	-2.3
70-80%	3,311	75.3%	73.3%	-2.0
80-90%	4,128	85.4%	83.7%	-1.7
90-100%	6,532	96.0%	95.2%	-0.8

SEASON BY SEASON, EVERYTHING CALLED 75% OR BETTER

Season	Games	Average odds stated	Share that won
2021	2,501	89.7%	87.8%
2022	2,505	89.6%	88.4%
2023	2,482	89.8%	88.8%
2024	2,529	89.7%	88.9%
2025	2,567	89.6%	88.7%

One good season can be luck. The same answer six seasons running is the model.

WHAT THIS DOES AND DOES NOT MEASURE

This page measures game outcomes. When Versus favors a team, how often does that team win? That is the question most people are asking, and it is the one answered above.

It is not a measure of performance against a sportsbook spread. Beating a betting line is a different and much harder problem, and nothing here should be read as a claim about it. Versus is a ratings and simulation service, not a sportsbook, and no bet can be placed through it.

Figures cover complete seasons only and refresh automatically as each season finishes. The season in progress is excluded until it is whole, so that a handful of early games cannot move the numbers.

College football win probability accuracy

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