UTRGV projected to survive McNeese State by six at home

Versus projects a 30-24 finish here, putting Texas-Rio Grande Valley at 63 percent to win a six-point game against McNeese State, tight enough that the model still sees real resistance from the visitors. This is a Southland Conference matchup, so the outcome counts in the standings for both sides.

UTRGV sits at No. 36 in FCS, 29 spots ahead of McNeese State's No. 65, and the gap shows in the letter grades: an A- power grade and A- marks on both offense and defense for the Vaqueros, one of just 21 FCS teams ranked in the Versus top 25 on both sides of the ball. The Vaqueros have also won eight straight at home, a streak that stretches back to August 2025, though Versus notes they have now dropped back-to-back games for the first time in its records, which tempers how comfortable this should feel.

McNeese State arrives with its own case, graded B+ across power, offense and defense despite the modest No. 65 divisional rank. The Cowboys' most notable result this season was a win over No. 46 Texas Wesleyan, a team ranked 19 spots above them. The two sides met in November 2025, when UTRGV won 28-13, a similar margin to what Versus projects again.