South Dakota State projected to hold off Youngstown State, 34-27

Versus projects a 34-27 South Dakota State win, a seven-point margin that puts the Jackrabbits at 66 percent to take this Missouri Valley Football Conference game outright. That's a tighter number than the gap in the two teams' overall grades might suggest, and it reflects how even this matchup actually is on paper.

South Dakota State comes in ranked 10th in FCS with a defensive rank of 2 and an offensive rank of 3, backed by A+ grades in both power and offense. The program has posted a winning record in 15 straight seasons and has dropped just 9 of its last 47 games over the past four years, a level of consistency that underlies its favorite status here.

Youngstown State is no soft opponent, though. Ranked 14th in FCS with an offensive rank of 4, the Penguins are one of only 21 FCS teams graded in the top 25 in both offense and defense, and they arrive off a 70-13 win over Duquesne, their most lopsided victory since 2012. Their defensive rank of 14 is the one clear gap between the two sides, and it's the reason Versus still leans toward the home team despite Youngstown State's offensive credentials.

Both teams sit at 2-1, and since this is a conference matchup, the outcome carries weight in the Missouri Valley standings rather than existing as a non-conference tune-up.