Columbia projected to edge Lafayette in a tight non-conference test

Versus projects a 28-23 Columbia win, a five-point margin that puts the Lions' win probability at 62 percent against Lafayette's 38. That's a closer call than the divisional ranks might suggest, with Lafayette sitting 24 spots ahead of Columbia in FCS at No. 49 to No. 73.

This is a non-conference game, pairing a Patriot League team against an Ivy League home side, so neither result affects either conference's standings. Lafayette arrives at 1-1 and graded B overall, riding a defense that ranks 86th and an offense at 82nd, modest marks that still fit a program Versus notes hasn't finished a season below .500 since 2022. The Leopards also just beat Marist for the first time since September 2024, a sign this group can find ways to win close ones.

Columbia is 0-0 and graded C+ overall, with a B- defense ranked 62nd that outpaces its 81st-ranked offense. The Lions' calling card is schedule strength, a sosRank of 2 that stands in sharp contrast to Lafayette's 88th. Columbia enters off snapping a seven-game losing streak with a win over Cornell NY, and Versus's model sees enough on both sides of the ball to make this a competitive, ratings-driven contest rather than a lopsided one.