Albany NY favored over higher-ranked Monmouth NJ in CAA play

Versus has this one backwards from where the divisional ranks sit. Monmouth NJ comes in at No. 42 in FCS, thirteen spots better than Albany NY at No. 55, yet the model still gives the Danes a 65 percent chance to win at home, projecting a 30-24 final. The gap comes down to power rank and defense: Albany NY sits 36th in power to Monmouth NJ's 54th, and its A- defense ranks 24th in FCS against a Monmouth NJ defense graded C+ and ranked 67th.

Monmouth NJ's case is built on offense. The Hawks are graded B+ and rank 39th in that category, well ahead of Albany NY's B- offense at 52nd. But Versus grades Albany NY as a defense-first team, and that unit is the more decisive factor in a projection this close, with the Danes' overall power grade of B+ outweighing Monmouth NJ's B-.

This is a Colonial Athletic Association game, not a non-conference tune-up, and it carries weight in the standings for both sides. Monmouth NJ enters at 1-2, Albany NY at 2-1, and Albany NY's defense will be tested against a Hawks offense that has been the more productive of the two units all season.