Southern Utah projected to outscore St Thomas MN in a shootout

Versus projects a 35-26 final between Southern Utah and St Thomas MN, a nine-point margin that leans on how lopsided this matchup looks on one side of the ball. The model gives Southern Utah a 70 percent win probability, built almost entirely on an offense-driven profile: an A offensive grade and a No. 17 offensive rank in FCS, even though the Thunderbirds carry only a B defense ranked 49th.

St Thomas MN comes in with the better record at 2-1 and a No. 2 ranking within the Pioneer Football Conference, but its underlying numbers trail. The Tommies grade out at C+ on both power and offense and C on defense, with a schedule strength ranked 106th in FCS compared to Southern Utah's 17th. Versus still ranks Southern Utah 12 spots ahead overall, 28th to 40th.

This is a non-conference game, with Southern Utah representing the Big Sky and St Thomas MN the Pioneer Football Conference, so neither team's standings are on the line. Southern Utah is coming off its first loss this season to an unranked opponent, which tempers the projection somewhat, while St Thomas MN arrives having not finished a season below .500 since 2007 and fresh off its most lopsided win since November 2025. The gap in scoring punch, more than the records, is what drives Versus toward Southern Utah here.