Arkansas-Pine Bluff favored at home despite trailing Bethune-Cookman in FCS rank

The biggest mismatch here is not between the teams on the field, it is between the ranking sheet and the projection. Versus places Bethune-Cookman 22 spots higher in FCS, at No. 56 to Arkansas-Pine Bluff's No. 78, yet the Golden Lions are picked to win this one 32-26 as home favorites at 64 percent.

Part of the explanation is where the game is played. Bethune-Cookman has been a noticeably better scoring team at home than on the road this season, which undercuts the gap in the rankings once the site shifts to Arkansas-Pine Bluff's place. The Wildcats still carry the better offensive grade at C- to Arkansas-Pine Bluff's defense graded D+, but both defenses rank in the triple digits nationally among FCS teams, so neither side figures to shut the other down.

Bethune-Cookman arrives having pulled off its biggest upset of the season, knocking off a team ranked 16 spots ahead of it, and comes in 5-3 against Arkansas-Pine Bluff's 4-3. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, for its part, is coming off a result against Florida A&M it had never managed before. Last October's meeting went to Bethune-Cookman 31-14, but with the site reversed and the road form what it is, the win probability now tilts the other way.

This is a SWAC game and it counts in the conference standings for both sides.