Oklahoma's defense picked to edge South Carolina's offense by two

Versus projects almost nothing separating these two teams, with Oklahoma favored 26-24 and given a 53 percent win chance to South Carolina's 47. That is as tight a split as the model offers, and it fits two teams that enter at 4-3 and sit within four spots of each other in the FBS rankings, Oklahoma 19th and South Carolina 23rd.

The matchup pits contrasting identities. Oklahoma is graded a defense-first team, an A unit ranked 13th nationally paired with only a B offense at 45th. South Carolina runs the opposite profile, an A offense ranked 14th and an A- defense at 30th. Oklahoma also arrives having cleared a far tougher schedule, ranked 7th in strength of schedule against South Carolina's 46th, which makes its 19th-place overall standing look earned rather than inflated.

South Carolina has been on a sharper trajectory of late, climbing 21 spots in the Versus rankings this season and pulling off its biggest upset of the year against a Florida team that sits 11 spots above it at No. 12. This game counts in the SEC standings for both sides, and with power grades of A- for Oklahoma and A- for South Carolina, the projection reads as a near coin flip decided at the margins.