Utah State favored over higher-ranked Colorado State in Pac-12 play

Versus has this one upside down from the divisional ranks, and the defensive numbers explain why. Colorado State sits 73rd in FBS to Utah State's 111th, but the Rams carry a D- defense ranked 130th nationally, while the Aggies grade out as a C+ on that side of the ball at 74th. Utah State is a 2-point favorite at home as a result, with Versus projecting a 31-29 outcome.

Colorado State's offense is the better unit on paper, graded a B and ranked 53rd, but the Rams have been getting outscored badly over their last five games, going 1-4 in that stretch. All four of their losses have come against teams with winning records. Utah State has its own version of that problem, having lost five of its last seven games with every defeat coming against a winning opponent, but the Aggies have still scored at least 17 points in each of their last four outings.

The game counts in the Pac-12 standings for both sides. Colorado State holds the better strength of schedule rank at 23rd against Utah State's 67th, but Versus is weighting the defensive gap heavily enough to make the Aggies the pick at home.