Tennessee-Martin favored over Eastern Illinois despite easier slate

Strength of schedule is what separates these two more than anything else in the profile. Eastern Illinois sits 30th in the FCS in schedule strength while Tennessee-Martin checks in at 62nd, yet it is the Skyhawks, not the Panthers, who carry the better overall grade and the home line in this Ohio Valley Conference game that counts in the standings.

Tennessee-Martin's offense grades out at a B and ranks 46th in the FCS, while its defense sits at a B- and 57th. Eastern Illinois counters with a B defense ranked 48th but a C+ offense ranked 66th, the weaker side of its ledger. Both teams arrive in rough form: the Panthers have lost 6 of their last 8 games, and the Skyhawks have gone 2-3 over their last five, having just allowed a season-high 55 points to Western Illinois.

Eastern Illinois does bring one steadying trend, not allowing more than 20 points in three straight games. Tennessee-Martin has won seven straight in the series and nine of the last ten meetings. Versus projects a 29-24 Tennessee-Martin win, giving the Skyhawks a 61 percent chance to win at home.