Bemidji State owns the series, but Minn St-Moorhead owns the ranking

Bemidji State still holds the long view of this one, leading the all-time series 12-6 and winning 7 of the last 10 meetings with Minn St-Moorhead. That history runs against the current form, though. Versus has Minn St-Moorhead at No. 28 in Division II, 56 spots clear of Bemidji State at No. 84, and the Dragons carry an A- grade in both offense and defense to back it up.

Minn St-Moorhead's resume includes a win over Minnesota-Duluth, a team 19 spots better in the Division II rankings at No. 9, even though the Dragons' own peak this season was No. 19 back in Week 2. That kind of swing is matched on the other side. Bemidji State has gone from a 38-point win to a 32-point loss this season, and its offense, graded B+, has been notably stronger at home than away, which matters with this one in Bemidji.

Versus projects a tight finish, Minn St-Moorhead 27, Bemidji State 25, giving the Dragons a 53 percent chance to win. The game counts in the Northern Sun standings, and with Bemidji State's defense graded A- and its power rating at B+, the home side has enough to make the Dragons work for the margin Versus expects.