Chowan favored by 9 at Ferrum despite its own road scoring dip

Versus projects Chowan to win this Conference Carolinas matchup 27-18, a 9-point margin that gives the Braves a 70 percent chance of the result. That lines up with the gap in the rankings, Chowan sits at No. 98 in Division II, twenty spots clear of Ferrum at No. 118, and the game counts in the conference standings for both sides.

The split numbers complicate the pick. Chowan has scored notably better at home than on the road this season, which cuts against a trip to Ferrum, while Ferrum has actually scored 15 more points per game away from home than it has in its own building. Those trends run opposite to where each team sits in the projection.

Chowan arrives with the better resume by the model's grades, a C overall against Ferrum's C-, and backs it with one of the season's bigger results, a win over North Greenville that sits 29th in Division II, 69 spots above Chowan's own ranking. Ferrum, No. 3 in Conference Carolinas by Chowan's own standing, will need its road form to show up at home to flip the outcome from the last meeting, when Ferrum won 40-37.