Wake Forest's climb exposes Virginia's deceptive 4-4 mark

Virginia's 4-4 record reads as an even season, but the numbers behind it tell a more lopsided story. The Cavaliers carry a strength of schedule rank of 87 in FBS and sit 88th in the divisional rankings despite a B power grade and a B+ defense, a gap that points to a schedule that has not tested them. Virginia also arrives off its first home loss of the season, a result that ended a perfect 4-0 start at home.

Wake Forest has treated its 6-1 record as a floor rather than a ceiling. The Demon Deacons have climbed 37 spots in the Versus FBS rankings this season, rising from No. 53 to No. 16, and their A grades across power, offense and defense back up that divisional rank of 16. Four of their seven games have been won by 21 points or more.

This is a conference game in the ACC and it counts fully in the standings. Versus projects Wake Forest to win 33-17, giving the Demon Deacons an 82 percent chance against Virginia's 18. The 72-spot gap between the two teams in the divisional rankings lines up with that projection far more than either team's record alone would suggest.