FCS · Pioneer Football ConferenceConference game
St Thomas MN's ratings edge outweighs Marist's close record
St Thomas MN#3859%
Marist#8241%Wk 8 (Oct 18), 2026-27: St Thomas MN 59%, Marist 41% at Marist.
St Thomas MN's win probability against Marist has swung between 39% and 70% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 59% now.
St Thomas MN's win probability against Marist has swung between 45% and 75% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 65% now.
St Thomas MN's win probability against Marist has swung between 51% and 80% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 71% now.
A one-game gap in the standings, 5-2 against 4-3, makes this look tighter than Versus sees it. St Thomas MN sits 38th among FCS teams and carries the top Versus rating in the Pioneer Conference, while Marist checks in at 82nd with a far thinner offensive grade of D- against the Tommies' B-. The records show both teams winning, but the ratings explain why one of them is doing it more convincingly.
St Thomas MN's offense, graded B-, gives it the separation Marist's defense cannot erase on its own, and the Tommies have not finished a season below .500 since 2007. Marist counters with a defense that grades out better than its offense and a season in which no opponent has beaten the Red Foxes by more than 13 points, so a loss here would likely stay within reach even if the Tommies control it.
The head to head history leans entirely one way, with St Thomas MN having won all five meetings since 2021 and Marist without a win in the series since that October. This game counts in the Pioneer Conference standings, and Versus projects a 29-25 finish, with St Thomas MN favored at 59 percent to stretch that streak to six.
Graded within FCS, 128 teams
