Georgetown DC's ratings trump its worse record against William & Mary

William & Mary comes in with one more win than Georgetown DC, but the records flip once the ratings are applied. Versus has the Tribe 77th in FCS against the Hoyas at 70th, and the gap widens further on power, offense and defense, where William & Mary grades out D, D+ and D compared to Georgetown DC's C, C- and C+. The Tribe have been outscored on average over their last five games, going 1-4 in that stretch, which explains why a 3-4 record undersells how far they have slipped.

Georgetown DC's own ledger has a different texture. All four of its losses have come against teams with winning records, and its signature result this season was a win at Colgate, a team ranked 37 spots ahead of the Hoyas in FCS. That kind of result, paired with a strength of schedule rank of 35, gives Versus more reason to trust Georgetown DC's number than William & Mary's.

The projection favors Georgetown DC 29-23, a six-point margin, with a 64 percent win probability. This is a Patriot League game and counts in the conference standings for both sides, with Georgetown DC's deeper defensive grade of C+ figuring to matter as much as anything on the scoreboard.