Western Illinois' home edge looms over a fading Tennessee-Martin

Western Illinois has scored far better at home than on the road this season, and that home-field jump sits at the center of this OVC game. Tennessee-Martin arrives on a rough stretch of late, having gone 2-3 over its last five games despite a defense that recently held an opponent to a season-low scoring output.

The ranks suggest a close call. Tennessee-Martin sits 59th in FCS with a power rank of 41 and a grade profile that includes a B offense and a B+ defense, while Western Illinois checks in at 68th in FCS but carries the better power rank at 32, an A- offense and a B+ defense of its own. Both teams carry a 3-4 record, and Tennessee-Martin is ranked No. 2 in the OVC to Western Illinois' No. 3, with strength of schedule ranks of 53 and 61 respectively showing neither has faced an especially soft slate.

Versus projects a 30-24 Western Illinois win, giving the Leathernecks a 63 percent chance at home, a margin built largely on that home scoring strength working against a Tennessee-Martin team that has slid in recent weeks. The result counts in the OVC standings, and it would snap a stretch in which Tennessee-Martin has won three meetings running in this series.