Morgan State's gaudy record hides thin schedule as Howard lurks

The records say Morgan State is rolling and Howard is scuffling, but the ratings tell a different story. Morgan State sits 5-2 with the highest overall rating in the Mid-Eastern, yet that mark comes with a strength of schedule rank of 119 out of 128 FCS teams, the softest in the league. Howard is 3-4, but its defense has not allowed more than 24 points in three straight games, even though the Bison have gone just 2-3 over their last five.

Versus still rates Morgan State 24 spots ahead of Howard in the FCS, 64th to 88th, and gives the Golden Bears the edge at home, 28-25, with a 58 percent win probability. Morgan State's defense actually grades out below Howard's, a C- against Howard's own C-, but the Golden Bears have outscored their last five opponents by 13 points a game on their way to a 4-1 run.

This one counts in the Mid-Eastern standings, and the series offers no tiebreaker either way, with the two programs deadlocked at 9-9 since 2007 and Howard winning seven of the last ten meetings. The projection favors Morgan State, but Howard's recent defensive consistency keeps this from being a clean call.